The Story So Far
A key point of contention in trade discussions between the U.S. and India is the U.S.'s demand that India import American corn. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has criticized India for not buying even a "single bushel" of U.S. corn despite its large population.
Does India import corn?
India's maize yield is low (below four tonnes per hectare compared to the world average of six tonnes), but the country has been largely self-sufficient and has even exported maize for poultry feed and human consumption.
The ramp-up of the ethanol-blended petrol program has increased the demand for maize feedstock. India's maize crop is expected to supply 10 to 12 million tonnes for ethanol production this Kharif-Rabi-Spring season, out of an overall 50 million tonnes production, with no need for imports this year, according to H.S. Jat, Director of the ICAR-Indian Institute of Maize Research.
India has, however, been importing maize recently, apparently for ethanol. In 2024-25, imports were about one million tonnes, an almost eight-fold increase over the previous year, with 60% coming from Myanmar and much of the rest from Ukraine—suppliers of non-GM corn.
India does not import U.S. corn because much of it is Genetically Modified (GM). India only allows the cultivation of GM cotton, and the cultivation of GM brinjal and mustard remains under investigation. Critics argue that fears over toxicity and diseases linked to GM crops apply to imported GM corn if it enters the food chain.
Why does the U.S. want to export to India?
Differing Agricultural Models: Indian farming is focused on feeding the masses, while U.S. farming is a highly productive, capitalist model characterized by large land holdings and high mechanization.
Need for Export Markets: U.S. agriculture is dominated by cash crops like corn and soybean, often leading to overproduction. The U.S. produces 350 million tonnes of corn yearly, exporting about 45 million tonnes, and there is a constant need for expanded markets.
Industrial Use: Maize is a feedstock for massive agribusinesses in the U.S., including manufacturing high fructose corn syrup, plastic, and, critically, ethanol production and animal feed for Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs). The U.S. is specifically eyeing India's ethanol blending program for its corn exports.
What are the political stakes behind corn and soybean exports?
U.S. Politics: The corn belt is synonymous with the U.S. Midwest, a Republican heartland and a core part of President Donald Trump's voter base. The corn lobby wields considerable power, especially since the U.S. election cycle kicks off with primaries in Iowa, a key corn-soy producing state.
China's Retreat: Following the China-U.S. standoff, China has stopped buying U.S. soybean, turning to other producers like Brazil. This has caused a crisis for farmers in Midwestern states, increasing the urgency for the U.S. to find new export markets, including India.
What are the stakes for India?
Protecting Farmers and Political Risk: Even if GM corn were deemed safe, India's moratorium on GM crop cultivation makes its import politically difficult. More importantly, cheaper U.S. corn (priced at about 70% of Indian maize without shipping costs) would be equivalent to dumping, which could undercut domestic prices and drive more than a million Indian farmers out of business, similar to what happened in Mexico after the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This could cause significant distress to new maize farmers and potentially affect the ruling party in key states like Bihar, which is a large maize producer.
Defeating the Ethanol Program's Goal: Importing feedstock for ethanol blending contradicts a key purpose of the program, which is import substitution to cut the oil import bill and save an estimated $10 billion in foreign exchange every year, which is intended to boost Indian farm incomes. Corn imports would defeat this purpose.